The ASU Sun Devils still have a path to a bowl game despite 1-4 start
On Saturday morning, the ASU football program was completely on its heels after a 1-4 start to the season that included the firing of head coach Herm Edwards after a “final straw” loss to Eastern Michigan at home.
Since then, Shaun Aguano had been appointed interim head coach and was gifted with back-to-back games against top conference foes in #13 Utah and #6 USC. Unsurprisingly, the new head coach and struggling program lost both matches by an average of 19 points.
On Oct. 8, the Sun Devils welcomed yet another Top 25 conference rival to Tempe, the #21 Washington Huskies. The visitors drew first blood, but two Xazavian Valladay touchdowns in the 2Q gave ASU a lead they would never relinquish. ASU would win 45-38.
The main story of the game was clearly the emergence of Trenton Bourguet, a former fifth-stringer that spent most of spring practice in a boot. Emory Jones, a transfer from Florida, had won the starting job before the season but went down after a hit to the head in the second quarter. Bourguet stepped in and led his team to their first win since a Week One beatdown on Northern Arizona.
In roughly two and a half quarters Bourguet put up the following numbers:
- 182 yards
- 15/21 passing (71.4% completion)
- 3 touchdowns
- 1 interception
Running backs Xazavian Valladay and Daniyel Ngata gave ASU two more scores on the ground that gave the squad 45 points on the day, the most scored by the Sun Devils since their infamous 70-7 win over Arizona in 2020.
ASU (2-4) still has a reasonable path to postseason football
Arizona State just went through a three game gauntlet of nationally ranked teams while navigating a coaching change. That’s a big task for any program. Unfortunately, that has put them in a big hole at 2-4.
Somehow, the Sun Devils still have a semi-reasonable path forward to playing some kind of postseason football if things go right over the second half of the season.
The best chance to do this would look like this:
- Beat Stanford
- Beat Colorado
- Beat Oregon State
- Beat Arizona
Their next game isn’t until Oct. 22 but that will be a matchup with a Pac-12 program struggling even more than ASU. Stanford is sitting at 1-4 and coach David Shaw is sitting on an increasingly warm seat week after week.
Colorado is even more vulnerable than Stanford, sitting at the very bottom of the conference with a 0-5 record. Just 8 days ago, CU fired their coach, Karl Dorrell, and are going through the same pains as the ASU program. The benefit of a few weeks of adjustment should help Aguano and his team take the win in Boulder.
Oregon State is always a bit of a wildcard team. They are currently 4-2, but are just 1-2 in the conference with losses to USC and Utah. Their sole conference win has come at the hands of Stanford who played them within one point, but the Beavers came away with the 28-27 win. Oregon State could certainly beat ASU, but the Sun Devils have as good a chance as any of taking down the Beavers.
Arizona might be the toughest matchup on this path to bowl game. Though they are only 3-3 (1-2 in conference) the power of rivalry games should never be underestimated. Fortunately, for Arizona State that power has been on their side over the past several years. ASU has won the last 5 games, but Arizona and new head coach Jedd Fisch are playing much better football than in previous seasons. This one won’t be a walk-over win. The Sun Devils will have to fight for it, but stand a good chance at securing the victory.
These four wins represent the most likely path for Arizona State to get to the requisite six wins to qualify for postseason football. Whether or not they can do it will likely depend on the developing confidence of an interim head coach and, possibly, a new quarterback that can spark the offense back to life.
Hope they win out.
But their luck they will lose the Thanksgiving weekend game which will keep igniting the in state rivalry.