Most of the fan base and media members have moved on from Vance being a head coaching candidate, but he has been brought up as the DC to the next HC we hire. To that its a hard pass for me other then the obvious, if we hire a defensive-minded HC, Vance would not fit in that defensive scheme, he would have to change the scheme altogether.
Given the current head coaching climate and where the Cardinals stand, Sean Payton has popped in and out of contention for the next head coach. What does that mean for DC? Could it be that Vance could continue coaching this Cardinals defensive unit? Earlier reports indicate that Sean would like to bring Vic Fangio along (which I have my own concerns about) but given the circumstances that Vance is currently under contract for the next 2 years (thank you for that final parting gift, Mr. Steve Keim) there could be an agreement to allow Vance to stay on the coaching staff. After 4 years that would be detrimental for various reasons, most that I have already covered.
This is the most important offseason for the former 2020 8th overall pick. Isaiah Simmons’ success is hinging on whether his current coaching staff can maximize the talent. Whether they decide to pick up his option remains to be seen and if they don’t pick his option up it will signal that he hasn’t shown enough in his 3-year tenure. That’s a worst-case scenario for him. Placing him in the same staff, why would anyone expect for him to succeed? The decision has to be made, and the fact the question still remains on a linebacker who filled the stat sheet this year, graded 67.9 overall, and graded 69.9 in coverage while logging in 409 snaps in the slot is amazing. He’s only played under one man, one system, various positions and I expect that to continue.
There are a lot of similarities between the Vic Fangio scheme and the Vance Joseph scheme. Both are 3-4, middle field open (2 high safeties) off-ball coverage defenses. As we know after Vance was fired as head coach of the Denver Broncos, Vic Fangio took over and was fired after 2021. Vic developed what was supposed to be the answer to modern offenses, the cover 2/quarters coverage push that we see sweeping the NFL. The NFL has adjusted to those looks by going back to running the ball and punishing those defenses, given that they inlude a lot of light boxes, and corners off 7-10 yards off the line of scrimmage. That’s one half of the reason why the defense under Vance has done poorly against the run.
Adapt or die is how offenses and defenses find success, those who adapt usually end up being the best of the best when it comes to coaching or coordinating. That includes changing from week to week and changing schemes with the personnel on hand. Every great defensive mind has switched from a 4-3 base to a 3-4 base given the personnel or how offenses adapt.
Since 2019, Vance Joseph has employed the same defense, the same concepts, and the same philosophy. The numbers tell a tale of a DC who refuses to adjust. What I’m trying to convey here is the league is moving away from the blitz, and the returns have not been there to justify the rate.
These are the raw stats for the 2019 Cardinals defense via https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/opp.htm
- Blitz: 267 Rank: 3rd
- Blitz%: 39.7% Rank: 3rd
- Hurries: 52 Rank: 23rd
- Knockdowns: 44 Rank: 16th
- Quarterback Hits: 91 Rank: 18th League avg: 90.7
- Tackles for loss: 91 Rank: 3rd League avg: 73.2
- Sacks: 40 Rank: 17th
- Pressures: 136 Rank: 22nd
- Miss Tackles: 135 Rank: 2nd
- Yards after catch: 2228 Rank: 2nd
- Passes Defended: 56 Rank: 29th League avg: 69.7
- Interceptions: 7 Rank: 32nd League avg: 12.8
- Scoring%: 43 Rank: 2nd League avg: 35.7
- Yards Per Play: 6.0 Rank: 4th League avg: 5.5
- Completions: 421 Rank: 1st
- Completion%: 70.0 Rank: 3rd League avg: 63.5
- Yards Given up: 4510 Rank: 2nd
- Touchdowns: 38 Rank: 2nd
- Yards Per Completion: 11.4 Rank 14th League avg: 11.4
- QB Rating: 109.9 Rank: 1st League avg: 90.4
- Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 4.4 Rank: 20th League avg: 4.3
2020 Cardinals Statistics https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/opp.htm
- Blitz: 257 Rank: 3rd
- Blitz%: 39.4 Rank: 4th
- Hurries: 65 Rank: 11th
- Knockdowns: 56 Rank: 13th
- QB Hits: 100 Rank: 9th League avg: 90.2
- TFL’s: 88 Rank: 5th League avg: 67.0
- Sacks: 48 Rank: 5th League avg: 35.5
- Pressures: 169 Rank: 5th
- Missed Tackles: 110 Rank: 15th
- YAC: 2039 Rank: 10th
- PD’s: 57 Rank: 24th League avg: 66.0
- Ints: 11 Rank: 22nd League avg: 12.3
- Scoring%: 37.2 Rank: 23rd League avg: 39.8
- Yards Per Play: 5.3 Rank: 25th League avg: 5.6
- Comps: 365 Rank: 17th League avg: 367.4
- Comp%: 64.0 Rank: 18th League avg: 65.2
- Yards Given Up: 5631 Rank: 13th Leauge avg: 5744.5
- TD’s: 26 Rank: 19th League avg: 27.2
- Yards Per Comp: 10.8 Rank: 10th League avg 11.1
- QB Rating: 91.5 Rank: 15th League avg: 93.6
- Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 4.6 Rank: 24th League avg: 24th
Note: the Cardinals were the 3rd most penalized team in the league, mostly due to Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick being the most penalized duo in the league with
2021 Defensive Statistics https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2021/opp.htm
- Blitz: 220 Rank: 5th
- Blitz%: 35.2 Rank: 3rd
- Hurries: 61 Rank: 22nd
- Knockdowns: 60 Rank: 7th
- QB Hits: 100 Rank: 10th League avg: 94.1
- TFL’s: 76 Rank: 12th League avg: 71.5
- Sacks: 41 Rank: 13th League avg: 38.9
- Pressures: 162 Rank: 14th
- Missed Tackles: 110 Rank: 15th
- YAC: 1784 Rank: 28th
- PD’s: 73 Rank: 15th League avg: 71.2
- Ints: 13 Rank: 17th League avg: 13.8
- Scoring%: 35.6 Rank: 12th League avg: 37.8
- Yards Per Play: 5.4 Rank: 17th League avg: 5.4
- Comps: 367 Rank: 11th
- Comp%: 65.4 Rank 16th League avg: 64.8
- Yards Given Up: 3645 Rank: 7th League avg: 3881.3
- TD’s: 30 Rank: 25th League avg: 26.3
- Yards Per Comp: 10.6 Rank: 10th League avg: 11.0
- QB Rating: 93.5 Rank: 19th League avg: 90.8
- Rushing Yards Per Attempts: 4.6 Rank: 28th
Note: Cardinals run defense was notoriously bad, giving up 114.8 a game ranking them 20th. This gives me the notion as to why the defensive scheme is built to play with a lead notibly
2022 Defensive Statistics https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/opp.htm
- Blitz: 225 Rank: 3rd
- Blitz%: 34.5 Rank: 2nd
- Hurries: 48 Rank: 11
- Knockdowns: 63 Rank: 8th
- QB Hits: 104 Rank: 10th League avg: 95.0
- TFL’s: 87 Rank: 10th League avg: 77.9
- Sacks: 36 Rank: 23rd League avg: 40.5
- Pressures: 147 Rank: 12th
- Missed Tackles: 83 Rank: 5th
- YAC: 2559 Rank: 32nd
- PD’s: 77 Rank: 12 League avg: 71.7
- Ints: 11 Rank: 22nd League avg: 13.1
- Scoring%: 41.6 Rank: 30th League avg: 36.2
- Yards Per Play: 5.5 Rank: 20th League avg: 5.4
- Comps: 414 Rank: 30th League avg: 362.7
- Comps%: 69.8 Rank: 32nd League avg: 64.2
- Yards Given Up: 3915 Rank: 24th League avg: 3701.2
- TD’s: 29 Rank: 29th League avg: 23.4
- Yards Per Comp: 10.1 Rank: 2nd League avg: 10.9
- QB Rating: 98.2 Rank: 31st League avg: 89.1
- Rushing Yards Per Attempt: 4.5 Rank: 23rd League avg: 4.5
Those are all the important raw stats pertaining to the defense, we get a picture that the defensive calls and philosophy remain the same, while the numbers can vary. Last year the numbers show that the blitz has become unreliable in forcing interceptions and pass defenses, although they did improve this year from last year, that is due to the increase of athleticism and speed on the field.
The Cardinals under Vance Joseph have never had more than 13 interceptions in a year and never ranked higher than 17th which came in 2021 even though the defense in the past 23 years has averaged 16th a year an average ranking being 11th going from 2012-2015 with 20, 20, 18, and 19 interceptions. The product of playing with a 7 yard cushion with a bail technique, allowing WR’s free releases at the line of scrimmage to cut routes short for easy first downs allows safer throws for Quarterbacks to throw underneath(take what the defense is giving you. Here are examples below.
This is part of the reason I detailed in my last article “Pass Rush Problems” as to why our pass rush has not produced many sacks this season. Easy underneath completions are part of the quick game that neutralizes a pass rush, imagine that being the entire season.
Here’s my last stat comparing the defensive numbers while blitzing (5 or more pass rushers) or normal pass rush (4 or less).
2019 Defense
Blitz: Completions 168, Completion percentage 69.1% for 1819 yards, 7.5 Yards per attempt, 23 touchdowns, 1 interceptions, 18 sacks, 102 1st downs, 120.7 Passer Rating.
Normal Rush: Completions 253, Completion percentage 70.7% for 2966 yards, 8.3 yards per attempt, 15 TD’s, 6 ints, 22 sacks, 141 1st downs, 102.5 Passer Rating.
2020 Defense
Blitz: Completions 149, Completion percentage 63.1% for 1560 yards, 6.6 yards per attempt, 13 TD’s, 5 ints, 20 sacks, 93 1st downs, 91.8 Passer Rating.
Normal Rush: Completions 216, Completion percentage 64.7% for 2389 yards, 7.2 yards per attempt. 13 TD’s, 6 ints, 28 sacks, 114 1st downs, 91.3 Passer Rating.
2021 Defense
Blitz: Completions 112, Completion percentage 59.9% for 1196 yards, 6.4 yards per attempt, 13 TD’s, 4 int, 20 sacks, 72 1st downs, 92.9 Passer Rating.
Normal Rush: Completions 254, Completion percetage 68.3% for 2669 yards, 7.2 yards per attempt, 17 TD’s, 9 ints, 21 sacks, 120 1st downs, 94.0 Passer Rating.
2022 Defense
Blitz: Completion 146, Completion percentage 70.5% for 1545 yards, 7.5 yards per attempt, 18 TD’s, 3 ints, 17 sacks, 96 1st downs, 114.9 Passer Rating.
Normal Rush: Completion 268, Completion percentage 69.4% for 2636 yards, 6.8 yards per attempts, 11 TD’s, 8 ints, 19 sacks, 122 1st downs, 89.3 Passer Rating.
2019 and 2022 are by far the worst and very similar. Producing better when rushing 4 defenders and dropping 8 in coverage. it’s no wonder that in both of those years Vance Joseph gets better production from his front 4 and still decides not to trust his guys up front the coverage in the back end. Instead of blitzing players and leaving his corners on islands, which was a criticism of Vance back in Denver. It’s a young quarterback’s dream to go up against this defense due to the heavy usage of off-ball coverage paired with zone pressures that get exploited, here are notable numbers from young Quarterbacks going up against this defense.
Kyle Allen: First start 19-26 261 yards 4 TD’s 73.1% 10 YPA 0 Ints 144.4 Passer Rating Panthers win 38-20
Delvin (Duck) Hodges: 16-19 152 yards 1 TD 84.2% 8 YPA 0 Ints 117.5 Passer Rating Steelers win 23-17
Tua Tagovailoa: 2nd Start 20-28 248 yards 2 TD’s 71.4% 8.9 YPA 0 Int 122.3 Passer Rating Dolphins win 34-31
Jalen Hurts: 2nd Start 24-44 338 yards 3 TD’s 54.5% 7.7 YPA 0 Ints 102.3 Passer Rating Cardinals win 33-26
John Wolford: 1st Start 22-38 231 yards 0 TD 57.89% 6.0 YPA 1 Int 6
Trevor Lawrence: 3rd Start 22-34 219 yards 1 TD 64.7 6.4 YPA 2 Ints 68.1 Passer Rating Cardinals win 31-19
That’s 11 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, and an average passer rating of 110.9 average completion of 69.5% with a 8.2 Yards Per Attempt and a record of of 2-3.
It’s almost as if they couldn’t have had an easier match up knowing they had to watch the film on where to attack these zones in order to neutralize the blitz calls. Here are some direct comparisons with Vance Joseph’s defense and Al Holcomb’s 2018 defense and how they fared against these Quarterbacks.
CJ Beathard 2018 stats: 34-54 349 Yards 63.0% completion 6.5 YPA 2 TD’s 2 Ints sacked 4 times with a 78.4 Passer Rating. Cardinals won 28-18.
14-28 190 Yards 50.0% completion 3.6 YPA 1 TD 0 Ints sacked 4 times with a 83.9 Passer Rating. Cardinals won 18-15.
2020: 13-22 182 59.1% 8.3 YPA 3 TD’s 0 Ints Sacked 3 times with a 125.4 Passer Rating. Cardinals lose 20-12. Note: Jeff Wilson Jr had 183 Rush Yards off 22 Attempts for a 8.3 Avg, a 21 Receiving Yard TD which came on a same Texas route that the 49ers called with Raheem Mostert’s infamous 76 yard TD with Simmons in coverage, except this time DeVondre Campbell was in coverage.
Patrick Mahomes 2018: 21-28 249 Yards 75.0% completion 8.9 YPA 2 TD’s 0 Ints Sacked 5 times with a Passer Rating of 125.4. Cardinals lose 14-26. Note: This was Patrick Mahomes 1st year as a starter for Chiefs. He tossed 50 TD’s threw for 5,097 and won MVP.
2022: 30-39 360 Yards 76.9 % 9.2 YPA 5 TD’s 0 Ints Sacked 0 times with a 144.2 Passer Rating, Cardinals lost 44-21.
Note: Patrick Mahomes at this portion of his career has put up a better passer rating against the blitz vs normal pass rush, in fact there is a notion that Vic Fangio started the 2 high off ball scheme purely to contain Patrick Mahomes. Unfortunately Vance thought the perfect game plan was to pair the off ball 2 high scheme with a heavy dose of blitz. We saw how that played out and yet it came down to one player apparenlty for the game plan not working. Lets see Patricks Mahomes numbers throughout his career against both the blitz and normal pass rush.
2018:
2019:
2020:
2021:
2022:
Patrick has been punishing the blitz his entire career, which is the reason why teams were dropping 8 and trying to confuse Patrick Mahomes in coverage. In every instance, he did better against the blitz overall. Mahomes, like Jared Goff, has seemed to own Vance Joseph his entire career. Against Denver, Patrick Mahomes had 304 yards 6.8 average 1 TD 0 Interceptions sacked once with a 89.5 rating. In his second meeting, his stats were 303 yards 8.9 average 4 TD’s 1 interception was sacked 2 times and had a 125.8 passer rating. Both instances were wins by the Chiefs.
The last thing I want to cover is how one-sided the criticism is heavily towards Kliff Kingsbury. It doesn’t matter what Kliff has to work with, Vance Joseph has been getting a pass. So why is it that in 2020 when the Cardinals had a chance to clinch a playoff berth is the defense blameless? I’ve already covered the game against the 49ers who was ranked 17th in points allowed, 5th in yards, 6th in defensive DVOA, 17th in points most likely because the 49ers offense ranked 31st in Turnovers. They had 17 interceptions and 14 fumble’s, if there is a case for an offense holding back a defense, this is a way bigger case than the 2022 Cardinals offense that ranked 27th in turnovers with 17 interceptions and 8 fumbles all year, and our defense ranked 31st in points and 21st in yards.
Before the Cardinals faced the Rams in the final game of the 2020 season, the Cardinals had a chance to make the playoffs ONLY because the Jets with a 0-13 record, went into Los Angeles and beat the Rams. They also knocked out the boogie man that was Jared Geoff and first-time starter John Worlford had to step in. On the other side of the ball, Kliff Kingsbury was going up against the number 1 defense in the league, the only defense that improved in the 2020 pandemic season, if that wasn’t enough, Kyler Murray stepped out with an injury in the first drive. That means first-time and unexpected starter Chris Streveler had to step in and face Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, Morgan Fox, Sebastian Joseph-Day, Leonard Floyd, John Johnson, Michael Brockers, and Troy Hill. The taller task was on the offense seeing what the situation dictated yet in classic Cardinals fashion the continued losing contain, and if not for back-to-back false starts on the 1 yard line by the Rams offense and fumble at the 1 yard line caused by Isaiah Simmons(who was still on a snap count for some reason) the score could’ve looked worse then it was. Time of possession was one-sided with the Rams dominating 37:53 to the Cardinals 22:07. On 1 drive alone the Cardinals gave up 3 first downs to John Wolford who use his legs to escape pressure 2 times to pick up 1st down, one of which came on a 3rd and 10. On that same drive, after noticing Hicks in coverage on slot receiver Robert Woods (go figure a linebacker on a slot receiver) on 2nd and 15, Wolford connected on a 30-yard pass to set them up on the 1-yard line. Lucky for the Cardinals, the Rams commited back-to-back false starts which led the Rams to settle for a field goal. If you watch the highlights, the amount of 3rd and long conversions, and the way Wolford looked in the pocket, it looked like Wolford was confortable in his first start notching the win.
The excuse I kept hearing this year was the Offense is gassing the Defense by not being on the field enough. Let’s look at the time of possession.
Chiefs 34:42 Cardinals 25:18 Lost TOP (time of possession) battle by 9 minutes 42 seconds.
Cardinals 36:22 Raiders 29:47 Won by 6 Minutes 35 seconds.
Rams 26:04 Cardinals 33:56 Won by 7 minutes 52 seconds.
Cardinals 38:35 Panthers 21:25 won by 17 minutes 10 seconds.
Eagle’s 34:39 Cardinals 25:21 lost by 9 minutes 18 seconds.
Cardinals 30:44 Seahawks 29:16 won by 1 minute 28 seconds.
Saints 29:02 Cardinals 30:58 won by 1 minute 56 seconds.
Cardinals 30:33 Vikings 29:27 won by 1 minute 6 seconds.
Seahawks 34:31 Cardinals 25:29 lost by 1 minute 2 seconds.
Cardinals 32:01 Rams 27:59 won by 4 minutes 2 seconds.
49ers 29:09 Cardinals 30:51 won by 1 minute 42 seconds.
Chargers 29:25 Cardinals 30:35 won by 1 minute 10 seconds.
Patriots 26:29 Cardinals 33:31 won by 7 minutes 2 seconds.
Cardinals 27:02 Broncos 32:58 lost by 5 minutes 56 seconds.
Bucs 36:57 Cardinals 29:22 lost by 7 minutes 35 seconds.
Cardinals 27:36 Falcons 32:24 lost by 4 minutes 48 seconds.
Cardinals 25:46 49ers 34:14 lost by 8 minutes 28 seconds.
So the Cardinals lost the time of possession battle 7 out of 17 times, even dominating in the case of the Patriots but still losing 27-13, and Vance Joseph had the audacity to make fun of Matt Patricia for his playcalling.
Against the Eagles, there was the infamous 7-minute 58-second drive by the Eagles in the 4th quarter that practically drained the entire 4th quarter, this coming after the Cardinals went on a 13-play 20-yard TD drive to tie the game at 17 a piece. This was the drive where on a critical 3rd and 12, the Cardinals defense gave up 16-yard pass to Dallas Goedert further draining the clock which at the end of the game became very crucial.
Leading up the the Cardinals loss to the Seahawks, the point was brought up again that the Cardinals defense was on the field too long because the offense couldn’t stay on the field, so thus they were “gassed”. Up to the point that the Cardinals defense started getting gassed, the Seahawks were winning the time of possesion battle 18 minutes 44 seconds to the 16 minutes with 50 seconds, thats a difference of a minute with 56 seconds. After which the Seahawks proceeded to go on 3 touchdown drives right before the 4th quarter, 2 lasting 6 minutes and the final one lasting 1 minute 18 seconds going 8 plays for 80 yards.
If this team is to win moving forward with a new coaching staff, Vance can’t be part of that. He is too predictable, nonadaptable, and unaccountable. Simply, it is time for Vance to go.
Extra sources from my good friend Walter Mitchell https://www.revengeofthebirds.com/2023/1/12/23551829/vance-joseph-arizona-cardinals-coaching-odds-sean-payton-shane-steichen
Extra resource and thanks to Alex Rollins for allowing me permission to reference his great video https://youtu.be/zUv3hHzBSKs This is where I learned why defenses are no longer blitzing Mahomes. Check out his video and channel, like and subscribe to his YouTube channel.
