Was Kyler Murray Overpaid?

Alas, it is official! Kyler Murray has agreed to a contract with the Arizona Cardinals which will keep him in the desert through 2028.

The deal is a 5-year contract worth $230.5 million that includes $160 million guaranteed. When looking at the current highest paid QBs list, I realized the .5 million on his contract played an important role and I will explain.

As of July 21, 2022, Kyler Murray’s new contract will make him the 2^nd highest paid QB, with an average of $46.1 million per year just over Deshaun Watson at $46 million per year. I suspect that the .5 million was added on just to make Murray attain the rank of 2^nd highest paid QB in the league for the moment. I consider this a “bragging rights” move for his agent Erik Burkhardt.

As soon as details of Kyler’s contract were released, reactions on social media were split. Those who held positive views of the extension praised the Cardinals for locking in a rising star who is yet to reach his ceiling. Those who didn’t like the signing, well that’s a whole different story. Their responses ranged from his height holding him back to his consistently poor performance in the 2^nd half of the seasons since he entered the league.

Many questioned the deal saying things like “What has he done to deserve such a massive contract?”, or “Why would the Arizona Cardinals pay Kyler Murray more than Patrick Mahomes?” or “Kyler Murray was overpaid and the Arizona Cardinals made a big mistake.” In my opinion, his deal was a great one. These statements, however, involve a fundamental misunderstanding of how NFL contracts – particularly those of QBs – work. To explain, let’s unpack some of the common criticisms of Murray’s extension, and explain why they are misguided.

What has Kyler Murray done to deserve such a massive contract?

A lot of times in sports, an athlete can achieve so many impressive feats, yet all it takes is a handful of bad plays to erase them. Well, let’s bring those impressive feats back to light, shall we?

1. He won the 2019 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year
2. He made the 2019 PFWA All-Rookie Team
3. He was the QB with the 2^nd most rushing yards in 2019 and 2020
4. He received consecutive Pro Bowl selections for 2020 and 2021
5. He has improved his completion % consistently every year finishing last season 2^nd just behind Joe Burrow
6. He has improved his QBR consistently every year
7. Next Gen Stats (NGS) has Kyler Murray ranked as the 3^rd best deep passer in the league currently
8. And finally, he took a 5-10 record Cardinals team to an 11-6 record in just 3 years

Why would the Arizona Cardinals pay Kyler Murray more than Patrick Mahomes?

To understand Kyler’s contract, you have to understand how to look at a multi-year contract and also understand how the QB market works. Multi-year contracts are looked at mainly in two ways. First, what did the QB do to earn it? The second is based on the future outlook of the QB using his current and previous production. Which is the correct way?

In my opinion, it would be option 2. If you look at the current top 10 QBs, 2 or maybe 3 out of the 10 earned their contracts. If you believe option 1 is the way to go, you will be waiting quite a while to acquire that franchise QB.

Understanding how the QB market works is based on the ever-growing salary cap. Simply put, as the salary cap grows, so do the contracts and when it comes to the QB position, which is the most valuable position, they are the highest paid players on the field.

Massive contracts that are signed today will be seen as complete bargains tomorrow. For example, Dak Prescott signed his contract last year to make an average of $40 million per year for four years. Complaints came out then saying the Cowboys overpaid him. At that time last year, he became the 2^nd highest-paid QB in the league. Now just a year later, he is currently the 7^th highest paid QB in the league at $40 million and next year he will most likely slip even further down the list for highest paid QBs.

So, what is the outlook for Kyler Murray’s contract in five years? Let’s have some fun and crunch some numbers. I took the 2^nd highest paid QB’s annual average salary going back to 2015. The average growth rate came out to 12.42% per year. At this rate, the second highest paid QB during the final year of Murray’s contract would be earning a staggering $93 million per year. Even if this growth rate were to slow down considerably, a conservative estimate is that the new QB contracts in 2028 will be averaging over $70 million per year conservatively speaking.

Now looking at this year, Kyler’s average annual salary of $46.1 million is looking pretty small in comparison to future contracts. When the time comes, it is pretty much a guarantee that QBs like Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert will eventually sign even bigger contracts if they stay on their current trajectory.

When one takes into account the realities of NFL QB contracts, Kyler Murray’s extension is in keeping with the market value for a player of his caliber at the position. With the ever-growing inflation of the QB Market and the research I have provided above, do you still feel Kyler Murray was overpaid or did the Arizona Cardinals make the right move in signing him to that multi-year deal?